"Demographic Resilience and Policy" survey results
Over the past 2 years, the policy experts who have participated in FutuRes Policy Lab meetings have demonstrated the will to create long-term policies for a resilient future of Europe. Yet these experts are faced with obstacles, both external and internal to politics. Meanwhile, the newly appointed European Commission has diffused topics related to demographic change into the portfolios of no fewer than ten commissioners.
“The upshot is unclear”, said Pearl Dykstra about this at the Futures Stakeholder Dialogue in March 2025. “Perhaps population policy is becoming more mainstream and prominent. Or, population policy will be treated as no more than an appendix.” (see the transcript of Prof. Dykstra's keynote here)
After the Dialogue event, the stakeholders were invited to take part in an explorative survey and give suggestions: How could long-term policymaking be strengthened, especially around issues of demographic change? 66 stakeholders responded, among them policymakers, members of civil society, researchers, journalists and members of international organisations.
The majority of respondents (74%) agreed with the following statement, either somewhat or fully:
"Long-term policy planning is more difficult than it used to be".
Obstacles to long-term policymaking
Repondents were then asked to name the most significant obstacles to long-term policymaking. The most frequent replies can be clustered into the following themes:
• Uncertainty of the future: A recurring analysis was that the occurrence of multiple major crises has thrown policymaking off balance. This makes projecting the outcomes of policies more difficult, or even impossible. Examples include the uncertainty about the duration of ongoing armed conflicts or the behaviour of the superpowers. As a result, foresight has to work with increased uncertainty of the socioeconomic conditions in the projected future.
• Speed of change: The speed of change was brought up several times. The fact that some developments, especially technological change, seems to happen practically “over night”, makes it challenging to react with policy that is both well thought out and effective.
• Volatility of politics: Several people identified population, polarisation or related phenomena as a major obstacle. It was posited several times that policy is being created in an environment, where there is often a competition between a binary system of two opposing ideologies. As a result, policies risk being completely undone as soon as a new government is elected.
• Individualisation of risk: A trend which was identified by several participants was that certain risks and burdens have been moved away from policy to the individuals or families. An example is care responsibilities. The participants who brought this up warned that this trend will result in increased poverty and inequality, which in turn will create more policy challenges in the future.
• Avoidable knowledge gaps: Several participants pointed out that while more data than ever are available, it is often not easily accessible to all stakeholders.
Potentials to overcome these obstacles
Next, the stakeholders were asked where they see opportunities to strengthen long-term policymaking. Recurring answers can be clustered into these themes:
• Improved information flows: It was mentioned several times that with all the shortcomings of internet discourse, the increased availability of information should be seen as an opportunity. Quote: “We are more connected than ever”. A suggestion is to harness the potential of the internet in terms of sharing data. It was suggested to focus first on making data more accessible to policymakers. (for a best practice example see the “Mapineq Link”)
• Connectedness: Potential for better communication was seen in connecting experts across sectors and internationally. It was specifically suggested to focus on exchange between policymakers in EU member states who work on similar topics, so that they can learn from each other.
• Human rights and gender equality: Several participants are seeing a trend where human rights such as gender equality are receiving more attention in policymaking than they did in the past. An example was the mentioning of long-term care in the Pillar of Social Rights, as well as the EU Roadmap for gender equality 2025. A suggestion is to conduct foresight research specifically into the possible outcomes of certain policies for women.
• Data wealth and foresight: It was stated repeatedly that even though uncertainty is growing, some aspects of population change can still be assessed with a relatively high certainty – an immense value to policymaking that should not be forgotten.
• Science for policy: To offset the volatility of policy, it was suggested to create institutions of scientific advise specifically around demographic developments, which can ensure a more long-term discussion is put in motion. An example given was a State Committee on Demographic Developments which existed in the Netherlands.
We sincerely thank all those who attended this FutuRes Stakeholder Dialogue and who contributed to the survey. This input will help the FutuRes team as they frame their research and recommendations moving forward.