European resilience 2045, imagined

One thing we can predict with confidence: European countries will soon have difficulties attracting skill for essential jobs. Especially in health, care, and transportation, this will be felt by everyone. What we cannot predict, however, are the courses of action that political actors will take. This uncertainty creates several possible futures. It could be that in 2045, countries in Europe will have eased labour in-migration in order to sufficiently staff their service sectors. Reversely, it could be that by that time there will have been more tightening of borders. Both possibilities create different scenarios, which are essential to anticipate, in order to prepare. Scenarios also help highlight the consequences of political courses taken today.

For this purpose, the FutuRes Policy Lab has created future scenarios using the established method of Qualitative Scenario Building. In 6 collaborative workshops over the course of the project, experts assessed the most likely futures that may unfold - based on current population trends. 

The FutuRes final Scenario Report highlights three futures that could unfold from possible courses of action: 

• "Competitive Cohesion", a scenario where Europe becomes a relatively open regime of talent management;
• "Patchwork Adaptation", where governments go for a partial and somewhat cautious adaptation to demographic change;
• "Fortress Pragmatism", where border regimes have become much more rigid than today.

The report explores what societies would look like in these scenarios, and how employers and policymakers might adapt to the situation. In a second step, it highlights regional differences in the coping strategies, separated by larger regions within Europe (Continental; Northern/Anglo-Saxon; and Eastern/Mediterranean).

Scenario Building intertwines projection through quantitative data with the explorative power of qualitative methods. The experts consulted were researchers, policymakers, and civil society stakeholders, all experienced in topics of population change.

Please not that scenarios are plausible futures, they are not predictions! We recommend to use scenarios as a corrective reference - a stress testing device for the long-term strategic planning of your institution. 

• Would your current policy strategy still be successful in each of these scenarios?
• Which difficult decisions might your institution face in each of these futures?

You are welcome to make use of the scenarios in this Foresight Document for your policy planning. Please consider referencing the FutuRes project. 

For questions, contact Katharina Dassel at VDI/VDE Innovation & Technology.