Winding road ahead

Qualitative Scenarios

Qualitative Scenario Building is a foresight method used to identify policy options.

FutuRes developed its own scenarios in cooperation with experts from research, policy, and civil society. Below are short versions. Clicking opens the full text in the foresight report.

Pick a Scenario

Happy couple with baby

Thriving Democracy: #resilient #inclusive #innovative

In this scenario of Europe’s future, immigration is managed in an orderly way; businesses and policy work together to make best use of digital technologies in the labor market and social life. Diversity and tolerance are upheld as European values. Family policies support parents’ choices  
Older woman and younger woman about to hug

Institutional Democracy: #inclusive, #strategic, #self-reliant

This scenario is characterised by balanced immigration policies, thriving labour markets, and productive technological innovation. Social life is marked by tolerance and self-sufficient organisation of family life 
Couple looking distressed at a calculator

Stagnant Stratification: #unequal, #static, #individualistic

Here the divides and inequalities which can be observed in Europe today, remain essentially the same. The organisation of social life is libertarian, with class-based inequalities. A variation of this scenario exists, named "Neoliberal Social Structures".
Help wanted sign taped to a window

Antagonistic Politics: #liberal, #progressive, #divisive

This scenario focuses on immigration policies. The situation in this future entails a lack of support for private households, political division as well as a stagnating economy.
Person at a laptop, frustrated

Lowest Common Denominator: #liberal, #globalised, #reductive

In this scenario, the political divisions across sectors lead to standardised compromises and generic policies. Social policies stagnate. However, the social climate is inclusive. 
Couple fighting between moving boxes

Short Term Politics: #isolating, #stagnant, #repressive

Anti-democratic forces attempt to drastically decrease immigration, anti-Europeanism is dominant. In this scenario, the ecologic crisis is undefeated, while labour markets stagnate amid economic isolation and brain drain. 
Young person starting at dark water

Burden on Future Generations: #traditional, #stagnant, #segregating

Economic recession and a decay of public infrastructure define this possible future, along with gender inequality and non-inclusive family values. Increased informal care work is another marker of this divided society.  
A winding road in green mountains seen from above

"Policy with Foresight - Preparing for the future in a scientifically rigorous and actionable way" 

This Policy Brief presents an overview of foresight methods. It is informed by experts from the FutuRes Policy Lab.

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