Winding road ahead

Qualitative Scenarios

What could it be like to live in Europe in 2045?

Qualitative Scenario Building is a foresight method used to identify possible futures. Explore the scenarios below. Clicking opens the full text in the foresight report.

Three policy scenarios of 2045

Competitive Cohesion

In this future, Europe’s labour market is open and competitive. Visas are agile, qualifications recognised quickly. Regions target global workers for tech, health, and the green economy.  

Patchwork Adaptation

In this future of 2045, Europe uses a model of circular migration with time limited roles. Short tenures remain the norm, teams are reformed often. The mechanism avoids acute shortages but creates a constant in and out.  

Fortress Pragmatism

In this version of 2045, Europe has restrictive migration policies. The working-age population is small and old. Employers respond by redesigning jobs, automating, and recruiting at home: older workers, returners, and people with disabilities. 

Scenarios for Democracy

Happy couple with baby

Thriving

In this scenario of Europe’s future, immigration is managed in an orderly way; businesses and policy work together to make best use of digital technologies. Diversity and tolerance are upheld as European values.  
Older woman and younger woman about to hug

Institutional

This scenario is characterised by balanced immigration policies, thriving labour markets, and innovation. Society is marked by tolerance and self-sufficient organisation of family life. 
Couple looking distressed at a calculator

Stagnant

Here the divides and inequalities which can be observed in Europe today, remain essentially the same. The organisation of social life is libertarian, with class-based inequalities.
Help wanted sign taped to a window

Antagonistic

This scenario focuses on immigration policies. The situation in this future entails political division as well as a stagnating economy.
Person at a laptop, frustrated

Lowest Common Denominator

In this scenario, political divisions lead to standardised compromises. Social policies stagnate. However, the social climate is inclusive. 
Couple fighting between moving boxes

Short Term Politics

Anti-democratic forces attempt to drastically decrease immigration, anti-Europeanism is dominant. Labour markets stagnate amid economic isolation and brain drain. 
Young person starting at dark water

Burden on Future Generations

Economic recession and a decay of public infrastructure define this possible future. Gender inequality, non-inclusive family values and increased informal care work are further markers.