Winding road ahead

FutuRes Qualitative Scenarios

Qualitative Scenario Building is a foresight method that turns data projections into narratives. Policymakers can use scenarios to stress-test their policy planning and to identify potentials for improvement.

In 2024, FutuRes hosted Scenario Building workshops with experts from research, civil society, and policy to identify plausible futures at the European level. Prior to this, the FutuRes research teams had identified the strongest driving factors for future developments around population. These driving factors became the basis on which the workshop participants would create their scenarios.

Find condensed versions of the scenarios below. Click here for the complete foresight report.

Pick a Scenario

Happy couple with baby

Thriving Democracy: #resilient #inclusive #innovative

In this scenario of Europe’s future, immigration is managed by European states in an orderly way; businesses and policy work together to make best use of digital technologies in the labor market and social life; diversity and tolerance are upheld as European cultural values, family policies support parents’ choices  
Older woman and younger woman about to hug

Institutional Democracy: #inclusive, #strategic, #self-reliant

This scenario is characterised by balanced immigration policies, thriving labour markets, and productive technological innovation. Social life is marked by tolerance and self-sufficient organisation of family life 
Couple looking distressed at a calculator

Stagnant Stratification: #unequal, #static, #individualistic

The divides and inequalities which can be observed in European societies today, remain essentially the same. The organisation of social life is libertarian, with class-based structural inequalities. There is a second version of this scenario, with slight variations, called "Neoliberal Social Structures".
Help wanted sign taped to a window

Antagonistic Politics: #liberal, #progressive, #divisive

This scenario focuses on immigration policies. The situation in this future entails a lack of support for private households, political division as well as a stagnating economy.
Person at a laptop, frustrated

Lowest Common Denominator: #liberal, #globalised, #reductive

In this scenario, the political divisions across sectors lead to standardised compromises and generic policies. Social policies stagnate. However, the social climate is inclusive. 
Couple fighting between moving boxes

Short Term Politics: #isolating, #stagnant, #repressive

Anti-democratic forces, attempt to drastically decrease immigration and anti-Europeanism is dominant. In this scenario, the ecologic crisis is undefeated, while labour markets stagnate amid economic isolation and brain drain. 
Young person starting at dark water

Burden on Future Generations: #traditional, #stagnant, #segregating

Economic recession and a decay of public infrastructure define this possible future, along with gender inequality and non-inclusive family values. Increased informal care work is another marker of this divided society.  

Scenario Building Experts

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Portrait Mona Hille

Mona Hille

Project Manager
Mona Hille is a scientific consultant in the field of work and future research at VDI/VDE-IT. She is an expert in foresight methods and their developm...
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CW pic

Christian Wehrmann

Project Manager
Senior consultant
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DeSaussure

Marlène de Saussure

Project Manager & Scientific Consultant
Marlène de Saussure is a scientific consultant at VDI/VDE-IT and FutuRes project manager. She conducts qualitative policy analyses and foresight studi...
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Portrait Marc Bovenschulte

Marc Bovenschulte

Project Manager
Dr. Marc Bovenschulte directs the Department of Demographic Change and Future Research at VDI/VDE-IT. He is also part of the iit-management, acting as...