Birth trends in Europe: The social factors which shape decisions on parenthood

The declining birth rates in many EU countries have made fertility a prominent issue in policy discussions. Fertility trends are vulnerable to shocks, such as societal crises, as seen with the COVID19-pandemic. 

Data show that a crisis can result in many people postponing their childbearing plans – or even abandon them. Policymakers wish to know how to build social and economic resilience for young people when making their parenthood decisions. 

In their latest report, linked below, researchers from the Warsaw School of Economics Wioletta Grzenda, Magdalena Smyk-Szymańska, and Lucas Van der Velde use population data to provide orientiation in this question.

The researchers aimed for a data-informed understanding of which factors associate with decision-making for or against parenthood. Many people go through a phase of uncertainty about whether or not they wish to have children. At some point, most of these people reach one of two conclusions: either a wish to become a parent – or a decision to remain childless. 

But how to they arrive there?

The research team focused on a set of individual features, such as: employment status, religiosity, life satisfaction and health. They examined how these factors associate with the transition from uncertainty to either positive or negative fertility intentions. For this, they used survey data from the second round Generations and Gender Programme (GGP) for six countries: Austria, Croatia, Czechia, Denmark, Finland and the UK.

While the importance of factors varies by country, three characteristics seem especially significant for the decision to have children in all of the examined countries: age group, number of children one already has, and partnership status. 

For example, women between 25 and 39 years old were generally more likely to be certain about their fertility intentions, whereas women in their early 40s were already more likely to be unsure about having a child in the nearest future. 

Parents who already have two or more children are less likely to plan another one in the next three years. On the other hand, being single is a strong factor against short-term fertility plans in all analysed countries both among women and men. 

Having a child is also associated with the women’s health status – those with very good or good health are more likely to plan to be mothers. What is interesting, religiosity matters more for fertility plans than for their fulfilment - the respondents declaring average or high level of religiosity were more likely to plan to have a child than less religious ones, but when the analysis shifts the focus to the presence of small children the fact of being religious was not significant. Respondents with higher life satisfaction were more likely to have a child. 

Surprisingly, the association between fertility intentions and employment as well as education were smaller than expected. Previous research had often highlighted these two factors as key drivers. However, the analysis by Grzenda and co-authors found that the significance of these variables was country specific. In some countries, such as Czechia, employment status had no significance at all for men when thinking about parenthood plans. In other countries, this factor was significant either for women or men. However, it was associated with both positive and negative fertility intentions, depending on the country.

These findings contribute to a better understanding of what drives fertility decisions. It enriches the literature on fertility behaviours by stressing the significance of individual characteristics in better understanding fertility choices. 

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