Research | FutuRes

Our research will show how life-course patterns of people in Europe are affected by societal change; how migration might effect labour markets; how recent crises are impacting fertility trends. Our research teams will identify the main drivers to all these megatrends in order to inform the FutuRes scenario building.

Working Paper: Resilience can be measured through various indicators and scales. The team at Warsaw School of Economics approached it by the set of individual characteristics. These characteristics describe health status, mental and financial well-being. Title: "Life course employment patterns and resilient adult-stage life courses in selected European countries" (2024)

Technical report: Can migration and job automation help address some of the challenges to the labour markets in Europe? The team at the University of Southampton presents a design and initial analysis of a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model, which will ultimately serve as a tool to examine the vulnerability of European socio-economic systems. As an illustration, we use a case study of the German and Polish economies. Title: "Specification of dynamic models for examining resilience" (2024)

Theoretical framework: This working paper identifies patterns in which fertility dynamics reacted to two major crises: the Great Recession in the late 2000s and the Covid pandemic. While in some countries, fertility trends changed considerable, in others they quickly recovered to the pre-crises level. An analytical framework is presented to investigate resilience in fertility dynamics in Europe, including micro, meso and macro factors. Title: "Resilience as a theoretical foundation for fertility dynamics" (2024)

Theoretical framework: In this report, the team at Bocconi University establishes a conceptual framework for resilience at individual and institutional levels. The framework is tailored for effective policymaking and tested in a case study on the COVID-19 pandemic. Title: "Resilience in Policy Design - What makes policies resilience-enhancing?" (2024)

Prototype: The team at TU Vienna has established a prototype for a model which will later quantify the resilience of various pension reforms. This technical note explains how individual behavior interacts with macroeconomic and institutional constraints, considering idiosyncratic risks. Title: "Theoretical foundation of the dynamic general equilibrium model with overlapping generations, heterogeneous households and family networks" (2023)